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Neither France nor Belgium impressed during the group stage of Euro 2024; their punishment, a difficult last-16 date with each other and landing on the tougher side of the knockout draw.
While expectations may not have been sky high for Belgium coming into the tournament, most would’ve expected them to comfortably win a Group E that also contained Slovakia, Romania and Ukraine. They came second having managed just a solitary win.
France, on the other hand, went into Euro 2024 among the favourites to win the whole thing given the talent at their disposal and recent pedigree in major international tournaments. However, they also only managed to finish as runners-up in their group as surprise package Austria topped the section.
After beating Austria – some might suggest fortunately – on Matchday 1, Les Bleus were held to successive draws by the Netherlands and Poland, with the latter finishing bottom of the group.
They scored just two goals en route to the last 16, their fewest in a major tournament group stage since the 2010 World Cup (1). Furthermore, those two goals came via a Max Wöber own goal for Austria and a Kylian Mbappé penalty, having 47 non-penalty attempts without finding the net.
Granted, the only goal France conceded was also a penalty (meaning their group games had 70 non-penalty shots overall without any leading to a goal), so defensively they were shrewd enough, but performances were unspectacular.
As a result of those stalemates with the Netherlands and Poland, France have drawn five of their last six Euros matches (W1) after only drawing four of their previous 25 games in the competition (W14 L7). Their game at this stage of Euro 2020 was also one of those five draws, tying 3-3 with Switzerland before going out 5-4 on penalties.
Had they ultimately won the group, France would’ve got themselves what many would consider to be a kinder draw both in terms of their last-16 opposition – Turkey – and that they’d have landed on the other side of the knockout bracket to the likes of Spain, Germany and Portugal.
It’s also fair to say Belgium have the weaponry to be problematic, even if they too flattered to deceive in the group stage.
The Red Devils will be appearing in the knockout stage of a third consecutive European Championship, having reached the quarter-finals at both Euro 2016 and Euro 2020. They’ve won each of their past four last-16 games at major tournaments (World Cup/Euros) since defeat to Brazil in the 2002 World Cup (2-0).
The omens aren’t great for a feast of goals in this tie, though. Only Serbia (3.8%) had a poorer shot conversion rate in the group stage than Belgium and France (both 4.2% – 2 goals from 48 shots). In fact, the Belgians have scored just three goals in six games across the last two major tournaments (2022 World Cup & Euro 2024), scoring from only 3.6% of their shots (3/83) and underperforming their expected goals (xG) by 6.15 (3 goals from 9.15 xG).
A place in the quarter-finals is the main prize ourn offer here, however there are also a few milestones in sight for Mbappé.